2024 MTV EMA Predictions: Who Will Win Best Artist & Song?

Kristian Gorenc Z

Oct 22, 2024

The 2024 MTV EMAs will take place in Manchester for the first time, hosted at the newly built Co-op Live arena on Sunday, November 10. The event promises to showcase the biggest talents in the music industry, with live broadcasts available across the globe. But beyond the excitement, we can dive into the numbers to make educated predictions about who might walk away with the coveted trophies for Best Artist and Best Song.

📌 Viberate Analytics: Professional music analytics suite at an unbeatable price: $19.90/mo. Charts, talent discovery tools, plus Spotify, TikTok, and other channel-specific analytics of every artist out there.

Let’s break down the data and analytics to forecast which artists and songs are most likely to win, based on performance across streaming platforms and social media channels.

Best Artist Nominees: Who’s Leading the Pack?

The Best Artist category at the 2024 MTV EMAs is filled with top-tier talent. The nominees include:

• Beyoncé
• Billie Eilish
• Post Malone
• RAYE
• Sabrina Carpenter
• Taylor Swift

We’ll evaluate their performance across several major platforms, focusing on Spotify, YouTube, SoundCloud, Instagram, and TikTok. Metrics such as total followers, streams, likes, and views will be compared. Let’s see how each artist stacks up in terms of both reach and growth over the past three months.

1. Overall Performance Summary

Sabrina Carpenter has emerged as a standout performer despite not having the same massive following as Taylor Swift or Billie Eilish. While she doesn’t lead in total streams or followers, her recent growth on platforms like TikTok (45.2%) and Spotify (24.3%) demonstrates that she is rapidly gaining popularity, especially with younger audiences.

In contrast, established stars like Taylor Swift show more moderate growth, with a 6.5% increase in Spotify streams and a minimal 1.9% rise in YouTube views. Beyoncé and Post Malone maintain strong positions but exhibit slower growth compared to rising talents like Carpenter.

Key Metrics:

• Taylor Swift: 92.5 billion Spotify streams, 32.1 billion YouTube views.
• Billie Eilish: 67.6 million TikTok followers, 120.3 million Instagram followers.
• Sabrina Carpenter: 45.2% growth on TikTok, 24.3% growth on Spotify.

2. Streaming Platforms

Taylor Swift remains the leader in terms of total Spotify streams and YouTube views, solidifying her dominance across both platforms. However, her relatively slow growth compared to newer artists highlights that while she continues to dominate, there isn’t much room for exponential gains.

On the other hand, Sabrina Carpenter’s rapid growth on both Spotify and YouTube signifies her increasing popularity, particularly among the younger, social media-savvy demographic. Her recent trajectory makes her a strong contender for the Best Artist award, as the EMAs often recognize not just established fame but momentum.

3. Social Media Channels

Billie Eilish continues to dominate TikTok and Instagram with massive followings, but Sabrina Carpenter’s recent 45.2% growth on TikTok and 9.3% growth on Instagram demonstrates that she’s gaining significant influence, especially in spaces where younger audiences are highly active. Taylor Swift’s social media growth has plateaued, suggesting that she may not have the same influence over the emerging generation of music fans.

Conclusion: Best Artist

Sabrina Carpenter stands out due to her impressive growth across all key platforms, particularly TikTok and Spotify. While Taylor Swift and Billie Eilish are industry giants, their slower growth suggests that the EMAs may lean towards a rising star like Carpenter, who is capturing the attention of a younger, more engaged fanbase.

Best Song Nominees: Who Will Take the Crown?

The Best Song category at the 2024 MTV EMAs features an eclectic mix of talent. The nominees are:

• Ariana Grande – we can’t be friends (wait for your love)
• Benson Boone – Beautiful Things
• Beyoncé – TEXAS HOLD 'EM
• Billie Eilish – BIRDS OF A FEATHER
• Chappell Roan – Good Luck, Babe!
• Sabrina Carpenter – Espresso

This analysis focuses on each song’s performance across platforms like Spotify, TikTok, Apple Music, YouTube, Shazam, and SoundCloud. Metrics such as streams, playlist reach, posts, likes, and shazams will be considered to evaluate social engagement and growth trends.

Top Tracks by Social Engagement and Playlist Additions

Billie Eilish’s BIRDS OF A FEATHER leads in overall social engagement, combining high streams on Spotify, TikTok views, YouTube views, and SoundCloud plays. However, Sabrina Carpenter’s Espresso and Benson Boone’s Beautiful Things also show strong engagement across various platforms.

• BIRDS OF A FEATHER: Leads in total engagement.
• Espresso: High engagement on both TikTok and YouTube.
• Beautiful Things: Dominates in playlist additions on Spotify and Apple Music.

Growth Trends & Engagement Across Platforms

• TikTok: Beautiful Things has the highest engagement rate per post, demonstrating strong fan interaction. However, Espresso takes the lead in overall TikTok presence with 14,600 posts and 1.5 million likes.
• YouTube: On YouTube, Espresso stands out with 58.5 million views and 434,000 likes, making it one of the most watched and liked tracks among the nominees.
• Shazam: Both Good Luck, Babe! and Beautiful Things have high Shazam counts, indicating that these songs are being frequently discovered via the app, which is often a sign of growing popularity.

Conclusion: Best Song

Sabrina Carpenter’s Espresso stands out as a balanced contender across all metrics. Its strong presence on TikTok and YouTube, combined with high engagement rates, make it a frontrunner. While Beautiful Things shows excellent growth through playlist additions and social media engagement, Espresso’s consistency across platforms makes it the strongest candidate to win.

Final Thoughts: Predictions for the 2024 MTV EMAs

Based on our data analysis, it’s clear that Sabrina Carpenter is a rising star with impressive growth across streaming platforms and social media. Her momentum suggests she could be the one to watch for both the Best Artist and Best Song categories at this year’s MTV EMA. While Taylor Swift and Billie Eilish remain dominant forces in the industry, Carpenter’s rapid rise signals a shift in fan engagement and popularity, particularly among younger audiences.

Stay tuned to see if these predictions come true during the 2024 MTV EMAs!