VMA 2023: Predicting Winners with Data

Kristian Gorenc Z

Sep 4, 2023

The MTV Video Music Awards, commonly known as the VMAs, have been revolutionizing the music video medium since their inception. For the VMA 2023, we at Viberate are taking a unique approach to predicting the winners in several key categories, namely Artist of the Year, Best New Artist, plus Best Pop, Hip Hop, Rock, Latin, and K-Pop Video. 

How are we doing this? By harnessing the power of data analytics. We're looking at the overall Viberate Rank. It's calculated with our proprietary ranking system which combines data from music channels and social media into one metric, with specific channels weighted by importance. The ranking is calculated based on data from the last 12 months. 

We're also looking specifically at YouTube views and Spotify streams for each nominee over the past 12 months. 

By integrating all of this data, we can offer a comprehensive picture of which artists truly dominated in each category.

📌 Viberate Analytics: Professional music analytics suite at an unbeatable price: $9.90/mo. Charts, talent discovery tools, plus Spotify, TikTok, and other channel-specific analytics of every artist out there.

Artist of the year

Nominees this year include some heavy hitters like Beyonce, Doja Cat, Karol G, Nicki Minaj, Shakira, and Taylor Swift. According to our 12-month Viberate rankings, here's how the chart looks:

• Taylor Swift
• Shakira
• Karol G
• Beyonce
• Nicki Minaj
• Doja Cat

The winner, based on both our data and Spotify streams, is Taylor Swift. But if we go by YouTube views, Karol G steals the show.

Best new artist

New artists GloRilla, Ice Spice, Kaliii, Peso Pluma, PinkPantheress, and Renee Rapp are nominated in this category. Based on our data, this is their ranking:

• Peso Pluma
• Ice Spice
• PinkPantheress
• Kaliii
• GloRilla
• Reneé Rapp

Peso Pluma tops the charts both in YouTube views and Spotify streams, making them the clear winner in this category.

Best Pop video

From Demi Lovato to Taylor Swift, this category is brimming with talent. Here's our Viberate chart:

• Miley Cyrus - Flowers
• Taylor Swift - Anti-Hero
• Dua Lipa - Dance The Night (From Barbie The Album)
• Ed Sheeran - Eyes Closed
• Olivia Rodrigo - Vampire
• P!nk - TRUSTFALL
• Demi Lovato - Swine

According to our data, Miley Cyrus’s “Flowers” takes the cake.

Best Hip Hop video

The nominees are Diddy, DJ Khaled, GloRilla, Lil Uzi Vert, Lil Wayne, Metro Boomin, and Nicki Minaj. Viberate's rank chart is:

• Lil Uzi Vert - Just Wanna Rock
• Nicki Minaj - Super Freaky Girl
• Metro Boomin ft. Future - Superhero (Heroes & Villains)
• GloRilla & Cardi B - Tomorrow 2
• DJ Khaled ft. Drake & Lil Baby - STAYING ALIVE
• Lil Wayne ft. Swizz Beatz & DMX - Kant Nobody
• Diddy ft. Bryson Tiller, Ashanti, Yung Miami - Gotta Move On (Queens Remix)

Lil Uzi Vert's "Just Wanna Rock" emerges as the winner in all metrics, from YouTube views to Spotify streams.

Best Rock video

The nominees include Foo Fighters, Linkin Park, Måneskin, Metallica, Muse, and Red Hot Chili Peppers. The Viberate chart reads:

• Måneskin - THE LONELIEST
• Linkin Park - Lost
• Metallica - Lux Æterna
• Red Hot Chili Peppers - Tippa My Tongue
• Muse - You Make Me Feel Like It's Halloween
• Foo Fighters - The Teacher

Måneskin's "THE LONELIEST" is the undisputed winner in both YouTube views and Spotify streams.

Best Latin video

The Latin genre sees nominations from Anitta, Bad Bunny, Eslabon Armado, Grupo Frontera, KAROL G, ROSALÍA, and Shakira. The Viberate chart stands as follows:

• KAROL G, Shakira - TQG
• ROSALÍA - DESPECHÁ
• Grupo Frontera, Bad Bunny - un x100to
• Eslabon Armado, Peso Pluma - Ella Baila Sola
• Bad Bunny - WHERE SHE GOES
• Shakira - Acróstico
• Anitta - Funk Rave

While KAROL G and Shakira lead in Viberate rank and YouTube views, Spotify streams crown Eslabon Armado and Peso Pluma's "Ella Baila Sola" as the winner.

Best K-Pop video

The K-POP nominees are aespa, BLACKPINK, FIFTY FIFTY, SEVENTEEN, Stray Kids, and TOMORROW X TOGETHER. Here's the Viberate chart:

• BLACKPINK - Pink Venom
• FIFTY FIFTY - Cupid
• TOMORROW X TOGETHER - Sugar Rush Ride
• SEVENTEEN - Super
• Stray Kids - S-Class
• aespa - Girls

BLACKPINK's "Pink Venom" triumphs across the board, excelling in Viberate rank, YouTube views, and Spotify streams.

Conclusion

There you have it! Our data-driven insights for VMAs 2023. Be sure to check Viberate’s music analytics for more interesting charts and data on over a million artists and more than 15 million tracks. Until the MTV VMA ceremony, keep your eyes and ears open for these artists—our data suggests they're the ones to watch!