MTV VMA 2024 Predictions: Artist & Song of the Year Insights

Kristian Gorenc Z

Sep 2, 2024

The MTV Video Music Awards (VMAs) are set to return to New York on Tuesday, September 10, 2024. This year’s event, marking the first time the VMAs will be hosted at the UBS Arena in Elmont, N.Y., promises to be historic. As we approach this milestone, Viberate takes an in-depth look at two key categories: Artist of the Year and Song of the Year. Here, we analyze the nominees and leverage data from major platforms to predict potential winners.

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The Venue Change for the 2024 MTV VMAs

This year, the MTV VMAs will break new ground at UBS Arena, a venue that opened in 2021. This will be the sixth different venue in New York to host the VMAs, following Radio City Music Hall, The Palladium, the Metropolitan Opera House, Barclay’s Center, and Madison Square Garden. With this change, the 2024 VMAs are set to create a new chapter in the award show’s rich history.

Analyzing the Nominees

With the stage set for an exciting event, it’s time to dive into the nominees for the 2024 MTV VMAs in the categories of Artist of the Year and Song of the Year. To determine potential winners, we’ll examine key performance metrics across major platforms: Spotify, YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram. This analysis will provide a data-driven perspective on who might emerge victorious based on their recent engagement and popularity.

Artist of the Year

The nominees for Artist of the Year are:

Ariana Grande

Bad Bunny

Eminem

Sabrina Carpenter

SZA

Taylor Swift

To evaluate these artists, we’ll explore their streaming figures on Spotify, view counts on YouTube, follower growth on TikTok, and overall Instagram presence.

Spotify Streams

Taylor Swift stands out with an impressive 2.74 billion monthly streams and a total of 89.36 billion streams. Her dominance on Spotify underscores her extensive reach and listener engagement. Ariana Grande and Eminem also show strong streaming figures, with Ariana Grande in second place for monthly streams and Eminem in third. While Bad Bunny and SZA are notable with significant streaming numbers, they fall behind Taylor Swift’s extraordinary figures. Sabrina Carpenter, though significant, has a considerably smaller total stream count compared to the top contenders.

YouTube Views

On YouTube, Bad Bunny leads with 374.45 million views in the past month and a total of 61.72 billion views. This indicates a high level of recent engagement and sustained popularity. Eminem follows closely with substantial total views, reflecting his ongoing appeal. Taylor Swift maintains a strong presence with notable total views but has a lower recent view count compared to Bad Bunny. Ariana Grande's figures are significant but do not surpass Bad Bunny’s recent viewership. Sabrina Carpenter’s high monthly view count, while impressive, does not match the total views of the leading artists.

TikTok Followers

TikTok reveals that Sabrina Carpenter is leading in recent follower growth, adding 620,000 new followers this month and reaching a total of 19.13 million. Ariana Grande follows with 80,000 new followers and a total of 35.5 million. Taylor Swift’s recent follower growth on TikTok is lacking, which might indicate lower engagement on this platform. Bad Bunny’s recent follower count shows a decrease, possibly due to data anomalies. SZA’s data is incomplete, affecting a full evaluation of her TikTok influence.

Instagram Followers

On Instagram, Ariana Grande has the highest total follower count at 377.52 million, reflecting her broad reach and impact. Despite a decrease in recent followers, her total count underscores her significant influence. Taylor Swift also has a substantial follower base with 283.80 million, although her recent growth has slowed. Sabrina Carpenter’s recent growth is notable, with 829,183 new followers this month. Eminem and Bad Bunny have smaller follower bases compared to Ariana Grande and Taylor Swift, while SZA’s total following is the smallest among the nominees.

Song of the Year

The nominees for Song of the Year are:

• Beyoncé - TEXAS HOLD 'EM
• Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me
• Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us
• Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso
• Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone - Fortnight
• Teddy Swims - Lose Control

To determine which song might win, we’ve analyzed performance metrics on Spotify and YouTube.

Spotify Streams

“Not Like Us” by Kendrick Lamar excels with the highest weekly streams (32.24 million) and a strong playlist reach (175.54 million). Its high popularity score (95) reflects its significant recent impact. “Lose Control” by Teddy Swims also shows strong performance with 30.18 million weekly streams and a popularity score of 84. “Fortnight” by Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone, despite having lower weekly streams (19.53 million), has a high popularity score (90), indicating good listener engagement. “Espresso” by Sabrina Carpenter has strong recent performance with 58.56 million weekly streams and high playlist reach (259.05 million), although its popularity score (69) is lower compared to top tracks. “TEXAS HOLD 'EM” by Beyoncé has the lowest weekly streams (8.29 million) and a modest popularity score (66). “Lovin On Me” by Jack Harlow has the lowest overall performance with 7.19 million weekly streams and a popularity score of 57.

YouTube Views

On YouTube, “Espresso” by Sabrina Carpenter leads with 10.91 million views and a high like count (93,704), indicating strong engagement. “Not Like Us” follows with 4.72 million views and a respectable like count (40,015). “Lose Control” has 4.84 million views and 41,839 likes, showing strong performance. “Fortnight” has 2.59 million views and 11,627 likes. “TEXAS HOLD 'EM” has 774,105 views and a low like count (3,232), while “Lovin On Me” has the lowest performance with 1.49 million views and 6,578 likes.

Predictions

Artist of the Year

Taylor Swift appears to be the strongest candidate for Artist of the Year based on her exceptional performance across major platforms. Her dominance on Spotify, significant YouTube presence, and strong Instagram following suggest she is the leading contender for this award. Despite less recent growth on TikTok, her overall metrics indicate she is the most influential artist among the nominees.

Song of the Year

For Song of the Year, “Espresso” by Sabrina Carpenter stands out due to its strong performance on both Spotify and YouTube. Its high weekly streams and views reflect substantial recent engagement and popularity. While its popularity score is lower than some tracks, its impressive metrics across both platforms make it a top contender for winning Song of the Year.

As we anticipate the MTV VMAs 2024, these insights provide a data-driven perspective on the potential winners in the Artist of the Year and Song of the Year categories. The upcoming awards show promises to be an exciting event, and with these analyses, fans and industry insiders alike can make informed predictions about the winners.